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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLENCORE TO SUPPLY COAL TO NIPPON STEEL AT $375 PER TON - BLOOMBERG
Glencore Plc, agreed to supply coal to Nippon Steel at one of the highest prices ever paid by the Japan Bloomberg reported on July 27.
...
Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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