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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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