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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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