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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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