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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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