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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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