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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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