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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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