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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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