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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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