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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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