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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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