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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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