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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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