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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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