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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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