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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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