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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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