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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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