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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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