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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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