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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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