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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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