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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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