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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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