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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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