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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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