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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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