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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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