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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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