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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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