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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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