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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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