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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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