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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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