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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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