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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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