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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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