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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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