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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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