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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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