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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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