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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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