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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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