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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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