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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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