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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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