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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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