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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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