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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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